Lucky guessing? A friend of yours who took the multiple choice quiz in Exercise 19 got all 6 questions right, but now claims to have guessed blindly on every question. If each question offered 4 possible answers, do you believe her? Explain, basing your argument on a simulation involving at least 10 trials.

Week 7: Probability Distributions 18 October 2016 Basic Statistics for Research Professor HK Dong Wendy Liu Baye’s Rule – given k mutually exclusive & exhaustive events such that and an observed event A, then Permits revising old probabilities based on new info o Prior probability – associated w/ B andbefore we know status of A and o Posterior probability – updated probability of B Application of conditional probability Mutually exclusive events Intro to probability distributions Random variable – represents a possible numerical outcome from an uncertain event Probability distribution – list of the distinct numerical values of discrete random variable X alo